iPhone Could Overtake BlackBerry Market Share in 2011

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM), with their well-known iPhone and BlackBerry mobile phones, have seen their shares in the global mobile phone market increase over the last few years at the expense of other mobile phone makers such as Nokia (NYSE:NOK) and Motorola (NYSE:MOT).

However, RIM’s market share lead over Apple has been shrinking and we estimate that Apple will be able to overtake RIM market share by early 2011.

Below we explain the significance of mobile phones business for Apple and RIM, and why we think Apple will overtake RIM mobile phones market share in the near future.

Mobile phones more than 50% of Apple and RIM stock

We estimate that the mobile phone business constitutes about 52% of the $267 Trefis price estimate for Apple’s stock and about 50% of the $77 Trefis price estimate for RIM’s stock.  Mobile phone market share is a crucial driver of value for Apple and RIM.  You can modify our forecasts below to see how sensitive the Trefis price estimates for Apple and RIM are to future market shares.

Apple to Overtake RIM in Mobile Phones Market Share

Apple has increased its mobile phone market share from 0.3% in 2007 to 2% in 2009, while RIM mobile phone market share increased from 1% to about 3% during the same period.  We expect Apple’s market share to overtake that of RIM by 2011, and for Apple and RIM to have 11% and 8% market share, respectively, by the end of Trefis forecast period.  We believe sales of the iPhone will eventually outpace BlackBerry sales for the following reasons:

1.  Apple’s ecosystem of consumer products (Macs, iPad, Apple TV) and services (iTunes, iPhone apps) make the iPhone a more attractive phone for many consumers compared to the BlackBerry

2. End of AT&T exclusivity will give Apple’s iPhone wider distribution in the US (comparable to BlackBerry distribution)

3. iPhone is making inroads with business customers that have traditionally preferred the BlackBerry

For additional analysis and forecasts, here are our complete models for Apple and RIM.