Intel’s Stock Impacted by Shift from Desktops to Notebooks

PC chip makers Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and AMD (NYSE:AMD) will continue to be impacted by the shift in demand from desktop PCs to notebook PCs.  This shift in demand makes Intel and AMD’s notebook chip businesses increasingly valuable.  We estimate that Intel’s notebook and netbook processor business constitutes 45% of the $22 Trefis price estimate for Intel’s stock compared to only 12% for Intel’s desktop business.

Shift in Demand from Desktops to Notebooks

We estimate that desktop sales declined from a peak of 153 million units globally in 2008 to 137 million in 2009.  We believe that desktop unit sales will dip further in 2010 and slowly recover to 2009 levels over the Trefis forecast period.

In comparison, we expect global notebook and netbook shipments to continue to grow from an estimated 157 million shipments in 2010 to about 230 million shipments by the end of the Trefis forecast period.

Although Intel’s share in the both the desktop (72%) and notebook (80%) markets remains high, the shift in demand decreases the sensitivity of Intel’s stock to the company’s desktop market share.  You can modify our forecasts above to see how Intel would be impacted if desktop sales were stronger than we forecast.

For additional analysis and forecasts, here is our complete model for Intel’s stock.